Skipper

That superb reader of the political game, Peter Riddell in The Times, scans tomorrow's political horizons to identify possible outcomes. Local government elections are confusing. There are 4361 seats contested. The probably most important are all those in London boroughs; next are one third of metropolitan district seats plus the 20 unitary councils. Riddell thinks 150 losses would be acceptable; 200 would be the biggest losses since Blair came to power; and 350 could cause the meltdown to begin

As I've essayed before, Blair knows Labour MPs have as much to lose as him if they wield the knife and Brown's legacy would be despoiled. They would need to show unequivocally that a clear majority of the PLP wish him to go early- maybe 350 losses would provide the momentum for them to do just that. However, Blair is a resourceful and bold political fighter. He will offer a reshuffle and try to change the political weather as Major did in 1995 when he held an re-election of himself as leader to re-inforce his sinking position. It worked, for about five days then problems redoubled. If Blair does reshuffle I wonder what he'll do with Clarke and Prezza? Whatever, it'll only postpone the inevitable for a short while longer.